Robert Libman: Is the PQ's byelection win a blip or a revival?

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“They’re baaaaack!” was the enduring line from the 1986 horror film Poltergeist II about evil spirits returning to hang-out a household.

After being decimated in final 12 months’s election — diminished to solely three seats — many believed the Parti Québécois was toast, burnt past even the Liberals and not to be feared.

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One 12 months later, they’re again from the useless and the speak of the city in Quebec Metropolis after Monday’s large victory within the Jean-Talon byelection. The PQ gained the sometimes federalist using for the primary time ever, doubling the vote of the governing Coalition Avenir Québec.

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After 5 tough years for minority communities beneath François Legault’s authorities, some could have relished seeing the premier squirming as he answered to the outcomes. However the obvious resurrection of PQ spirits definitely dissipates any optimism for minorities.

So, is there something to be genuinely frightened about? Is the PQ “again”? Can the separatist celebration win the subsequent common election in 2026?

Standard knowledge suggests the outcome was solely a rebuke of the CAQ, localized within the Quebec Metropolis area, largely pushed by its damaged promise concerning the “third hyperlink” tunnel. Additionally, Quebecers are struggling to make ends meet, and with all the opposite issues, it’s cathartic to slap the incumbent authorities on the wrists in a byelection, when the outcome means little total.

With three years earlier than the subsequent election, it’s untimely to counsel these outcomes imply something substantial. However it’s additionally unwise to counsel that they don’t.

The voters within the solely francophone using, in punishing the CAQ, needed to go for one other celebration. They selected the PQ — not the Liberals, not Québec solidaire, not the Conservatives. If the subsequent three years proceed to be tough for the CAQ, and its francophone assist continues to shrivel, will the vote be evenly distributed among the many different events? Or will it switch largely to the PQ, because it did in Jean-Talon — sufficient for them to mount an actual menace within the subsequent election?

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With extra deal with the PQ, a lot will rely on whether or not the celebration can present itself to be a viable authorities in ready and never simply the most effective “not one of the above” byelection different — an opposition with out sensible options. The PQ’s magic potion for all issues (financial, well being, housing, and so forth.) too typically simplistically depends on the panacea of Quebec independence and escaping the shackles of Canada.

Earlier PQ incarnations typically downplayed separation when attempting to carry on to, or sniffing, energy. That gained’t be simple this time as chief Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has made the problem entrance and centre to consolidate the celebration’s base and climb out of the doldrums. On Oct. 23 the celebration is to unveil what’s being referred to as the “Yr 1” finances and funds of a theoretical unbiased Quebec. This can put a giant goal on the wall and permit Legault, the accountant and former separatist, to shift focus away from his authorities’s shortcomings and go on the offensive. Belittling the PQ push for one more divisive referendum that Quebecers don’t need or want whereas bread and butter points are on the desk is a no brainer.

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In at this time’s globalized and digital world, if independence is the PQ’s central focus, the celebration needn’t be feared in a common election.

What’s scary-movie horrifying, although, with the PQ firmly establishing itself because the CAQ’s main adversary, is that Legault inevitably will attempt to outflank the separatist celebration on problems with language, nationalism and id.

With the PQ believing that language legal guidelines don’t go practically far sufficient, and that immigration threatens the French language, count on much more arm wrestling for nationalist one-upmanship, which is able to inevitably proceed to hang-out anglophones, immigrants and cultural communities for years to come back.

Robert Libman is an architect and constructing planning guide who has served as Equality Celebration chief and MNA, as mayor of Côte-St-Luc and as a member of the Montreal government committee. He was a Conservative candidate within the 2015 federal election. twitter.com/robertlibman

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